Holiday shopping could be especially merry this year — and increasingly powered by artificial intelligence. The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) is forecasting a 5.5% year-over-year increase in US retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, from November 1 through Christmas Eve. That would make 2026 the strongest holiday season for spending growth since 2022.
Online sales are expected to grow 11%, while in-store sales are forecast to rise 3.6%, suggesting that shoppers will continue moving comfortably between digital discovery and traditional brick-and-mortar stores. Mastercard says consumers enter the season with solid purchasing power, supported by a strong job market, wage growth and rising household wealth. About half of the projected increase in spending, however, is expected to reflect higher prices.
One of Mastercard's most interesting findings involves the growing influence of AI in retail purchasing decisions. Using aggregated and anonymized data, MEI compared spending by “AI power users” — consumers with paid AI subscriptions — with shoppers who don't use paid AI services.
Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute chief economist, described these shoppers as “a lot more nimble” when discussing the findings on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street on September 23.
“We were able to have a unique lens to understand how consumers that use AI spend differently, and frankly, in some ways are just a lot more nimble,” Meyer said. She added that this flexibility can help consumers navigate an environment in which prices have increased.
The difference could be especially meaningful as we approach the holiday season. In 2025, AI power users spent a larger share of their holiday dollars before Thanksgiving than non-AI users, particularly on travel, clothing and jewelry. They also shopped at a broader range of merchants, including smaller and boutique businesses.
For jewelry shoppers, that could mean using AI to compare styles, retailers and prices, discover independent jewelers or research an engagement ring well before the traditional holiday shopping rush. Meyer said AI power users frequent a wider range of merchants, creating “an incredible market for those consumers, especially in a world where you are trying to find the best value.”
The next step is agentic commerce, in which AI agents can go beyond making recommendations. They can research products, compare options and potentially initiate or complete purchases with little manual intervention. Mastercard has separately projected that more than 300 million online shoppers globally could routinely use AI agents to shop and pay by 2030.
The company also provided some eye-opening facts about last-minute shoppers. Mastercard found that during the 2025 holiday season, more than 35% of in-store spending in jewelry, handbags, department stores and cosmetics between November 22 and Christmas Day occurred during the final week before Christmas. Across online and in-store purchases in those categories, average purchase values rose each day beginning December 15 and peaked on Christmas Eve.
Credit: Image by The Jeweler Blog using aichatapp.ai.